Population Projections (NOD41O2)
- Level of study undergraduate studies
Ph.D. Petar Vasić
- Subject status: obligatory
- ECTS: 7
- Semester: VII
- Number of classes: 3+2
The objective of the course is to introduce students with a complex process of projecting of population and the significance of population projections in all areas of social and economic planning. Also, getting acquainted with the basic methods and projections and the necessary data for their implementation.
Learning and training students to apply different techniques for calculating the future population or certain categories of population, to analyze and interpret the results of projections.
This subject should contain the introduction into matter of population projections as well as basic projecting methods, through the following headings: Concept of population projections. Significance and application of population projections. The notion of forecast, perspective and assessment. Methods of population projections. Mathematical projection method - properties and applications. Advantages and disadvantages of the mathematical projection method. Extrapolation based on two-point data. Extrapolation based on data from three or more moments. Cohort-component method for population projections. Advantages and disadvantages of cohort-component methods. Hypothesis on fertility. Mortality hypothesis. Migration hypothesis. Projection variants. Projection for closed population. Projection including migration movements. Method of relationship in population projections. Official projections in Serbia. Analysis of the results of previous projections. Accuracy of projections. The place and importance of population projections in demographic research. Different methods of population projections. Methodological considerations of mathematical projections. Input data for mathematical projections. Calculation technique for mathematical projections. Analysis of results. Methodological considerations of cohort-component method. Input data for cohort-component method. Fertility analysis and defining hypothesis on fertility. Different variants of fertility hypothesis. Calculation of the number of live births. Analysis and definition of mortality hypothesis. Survival rates. Analysis of migration and definition of migration hypothesis. Method of relationship in population projections. Needs for projecting the total population or certain categories of population in Serbia. Work on projections, starting from the first contemporary projections to the latest. Applied methodology and peculiarities of previous projections. Concurrence of the projections made with the achieved demographic development of the population of Serbia. Methodology of population projections of small areas. Projections of urban and rural population. Projections of the agricultural population. Projections of families and households. Labor force projection.
Creation of projections for a specific population based on current data on the total population or a certain category of population using different methods: 1) extrapolation using an arithmetic mean; 2) extrapolation using geometric mean; 3) extrapolation based on data from multiple observations; 4) empirical data testing and function selection; 5) analysis of results and comparison of results of different approaches; 6) defining fertility hypothesis - different approaches of calculating the number of live births; 7) defining the mortality hypothesis - selecting mortality tables, calculating the survival rate; 8) definition of the migration hypothesis - future migration bilance and distribution by age groups - corrective factor; 9) calculation of the future age-sex structure for the closed (open) population; Result analysis of the existing official population projections in Serbia. Result analysis of many different population projections worldwide and by regions. Calculation of future workforce. Calculation of the future number of households. Calculation of the future agricultural population. Calculation of future urban population.
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