Scenario Methods (NOPP42I4)

  • Level of study undergraduate studies
  • Teacher: Ph.D. Milan Kukrika
  • Subject status: elective
  • ECTS: 6
  • Semester: VIII
  • Number of classes: 2+3

The objective of the course is to enable students to, with the help of GIS, visually monitor phenomena and processes in an area, identify key drivers of change, reduce risks and quickly make new decisions, proactively participate in guidance and space management.

Using scenarios and prospecting methods, students will make different sets of possible visions of future state of any given area, with the necessary analyzes, using measurements and instruments for evaluating and realizing certain developmental scenarios.

Theoretical lectures

Basics of prospecting; Predicting the future; Features of the scenario analysis; Best examples of the application of scenario analysis in Europe and the US; Spatial data, as the strength of shaping the future using modern information technology, for the needs of spatial planning and strategic decision making. What are all the GIS tools available for building scenarios and what does each provide? What is essential for GIS to have in order to be used in scenario analysis? How do we choose qualitative and quantitative variables (key drivers)?

Practical lectures

Creating a virtual representation of the projected area; Prediction and experimentation with multiple variants (alternatives); analysing changes in different alternatives; Identifying qualitative and quantitative impacts of real-time changes; Connecting component outputs to visual displays; Combined planning; Selection of cities and selection; Build-out analysis; Zoning and permanent decision making; Guidance and emergency planning; Visual Impact Analysis and others.

Kaunonen, A. (2001): Scenario Building and Strategy Work. Workshop IV, Seminar on Scenario Building, Finland Future Research Centre, CAPFUL;
William H. R., Honton E. J. (1987): Scenario Planning - What Style You Should Use, Long Range Planning, Vol. 20, No. 4;
Fontela, E. (2000): Bridging the Gap between Scenarios and Models. Foresight Vol. 2, Feb. 00, s. 10-14;
Kaivo-oja, Jari (2001): Scenario Learning and Potential Sustainable Development Processes in Spatial Contexts: Towards Risk Society or Ecological Modernization Scenarios? Forthcoming in Futures Research Quarterly. World Future Society, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics and Business Administration;
Godet, M. (1987): Scenarios and Strategic Management. Butterworth, London;
Godet, M. (1991): From Anticipation to Action. A Handbook of Strategic Prospective. UNESCO Publishing, Paris.

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